Predicting current and future distribution of Hovenia dulcis Thunb. (Rhamnaceae) worldwide

Abstract Biological invasions are increasingly recognized as one of the major threats to biodiversity. The Japanese raisin tree ( Hovenia dulcis ) is native East Asia, however, in southeastern South America this species has become most pervasive invaders. many biological characteristics that favor process invasion and few studies have indicated changes structure composition plant communities where invader. Given invasiveness shown America, our main goal was identify potentially suitable habitats for invasive at a global scale. In sense, we modeled potential distribution H. along terrestrial areas worldwide using an ensemble forecasting approach. Additionally, percentage overlapping biodiversity hotspot with currently calculated. Our results revealed current range equivalent 7.88% (12,719,365 km 2 area worldwide. For future scenarios climate change, tends small reduction. However, significant were identified northern limits boreal distribution. Currently, around 17% overlap occurrence. summary, given prevention well-recognized more effective management action against alien species, it essential implement policies prevent introduction worldwide, well local population control, especially hotspots.